History has not been kind to the team sitting at the top of the FIFA World Rankings when the World Cup rolls around. Since the rankings were introduced in 1992, the nation occupying the summit heading into the tournament has consistently underperformed, and in several cases suffered outright embarrassment.
With the FIFA World Cup betting putting them second favourite as well, France are the latest to find themselves in the hot seat, having leapfrogged Spain and Argentina to claim top spot following victories over Brazil and Colombia in the March international window. The question is whether it represents a source of confidence or a poisoned chalice.
For Didier Deschamps, who has already confirmed he will step down at the conclusion of the tournament after almost 15 years in charge, with Zinedine Zidane waiting in the wings, the stakes could hardly be higher. A final tournament, a number one ranking, and a nation expecting a trophy. The pressure is considerable.
A troubling record
The history of the top-ranked nation at each World Cup since the rankings began makes for grim reading.
Germany went into the 1994 tournament in the United States as the world’s top-ranked side and were knocked out in the quarter-finals by Bulgaria, a result that remains one of the era’s great upsets. Four years later in France, Brazil carried the number one tag and reached the final, only to lose to the hosts in one of the most unusual finals in World Cup history, with Ronaldo’s mysterious illness casting a shadow over the occasion.
France themselves have form here. They entered the 2002 World Cup in Japan and South Korea as both world champions and the top-ranked side in the world, and they were eliminated in the group stage without scoring a single goal. It remains one of the most catastrophic collapses in tournament history.
Brazil in 2006 and again in 2010 followed the same pattern. The Selecao arrived as the top-ranked nation on both occasions and were knocked out at the quarter-final stage each time, the latter a particularly painful defeat to the Netherlands in South Africa.
Spain went to the 2014 World Cup in Brazil as world and European champions, and the number one-ranked team, and they joined France in the group stage exit hall of shame, beaten by the Netherlands and Chile in their opening two games.
Germany, the eventual winners of that tournament, went into the 2018 World Cup in Russia as top-ranked defending world champions, and they suffered the same humiliating fate, going out in the group stage following defeat to South Korea.
Most recently, Brazil arrived at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar as the top-ranked nation and were eliminated at the quarter-final stage, beaten on penalties by Croatia in a match they had led going into the closing stages of extra time.
The pattern
Eight tournaments. One finalist. Two quarter-final eliminations. Four group stage exits. Not a single winner. The top-ranked team has never lifted the World Cup in the history of the FIFA rankings. It is a remarkable and consistent record of underperformance that defies easy explanation but is impossible to ignore.
What it means for France
France are not without genuine cause for optimism. They reached the final in 2022, losing on penalties to Argentina in one of the greatest finals in the tournament’s history, and their squad remains one of the most talented in the world. Kylian Mbappe, despite fitness concerns at club level with Real Madrid, is the defining player of his generation when fit, and the generation of midfielders behind him has matured significantly since Qatar.
But the weight of expectation is real, and the history of the number one ranking at World Cups suggests it brings with it a target rather than a shield. Every opponent will be motivated, every result will be scrutinised, and every slip will be magnified.
Deschamps has navigated pressure before, but this is his final chapter, and France’s players know it. Whether the number one ranking proves to be a foundation for glory or just another entry in a long list of cautionary tales, the tournament this summer will tell us soon enough.
For Thomas Tuchel, maybe it’s a good thing that the Three Lions are neither ranked No.1 in the world or favourite in the England betting markets for the tournaments.