Another week, another gamble. The subject of this week’s shot in the dark is the returning Aaron Lennon with Tottenham having two massive games that will define their season.

The pacy winger has been out for a long time with a persistent groin injury but is expected to be involved in the weekend’s game against Bolton, though he is by no means guaranteed a start.

Lennon comes into a five man midfield alongside fellow double gameweekers Matthew Etherington and Adam Johnson, as well as Tim Cahill and Florent Malouda.

Darren Bent drops to the bench, though chances are he will bag a goal against Manchester United as some sort of two fingered gesture in my direction.

Carlos Tevez takes over the armband with City at home twice, though games against Aston Villa and Spurs are obviously not easy.

I expect City to score however, and both James Collins and Carlos Cuellar drop to the bench as a result.

Birmingham host an already relegated Burnley at St. Andrews so both Joe Hart and Roger Johnson are included in the hope of them securing a clean sheet.

Patrice Evra and Leighton Baines make up the back three.

Last week’s score of 65 points was in large part due to the contributions of Chelsea duo Malouda and Didier Drogba, though the lack of Frank Lampard again proved costly.

Bent and Evra both contributed nine points, while skipper Tim Cahill managed to bag an assist to somewhat justify the decision to give him the role.

The team currently sits in 53,627th place out of a total of teams 2,313,514.

Team for Gameweek 37 -

On Saturday afternoon two of the contenders, Manchester City and Aston Villa, go head to head in a game that will be seen as a must-win for both sets of supporters.

Hosts City have struggled during their last two matches, putting in lacklustre performances against Manchester United and Arsenal, while Villa have picked up 13 points from 15 in recent weeks and are unbeaten in five games.

City manager Roberto Mancini knows exactly what is at stake going into the game with a possibly even trickier game to come against Tottenham Hotspur on Wednesday.

“We have one semi-final and one final. We must beat Aston Villa. Our focus can only be on this game,” he said.

“If we beat Aston Villa then we can think about the game against Tottenham Hotspur.

“It will be a difficult game because now Aston Villa are fifth and they have played a game more. They are playing very well.”

A season-ending injury to goalkeeper Shay Given prompted City to see special permission from the FA to sign an emergency replacement, and Sunderland’s Martin Fulop joined during the week after the club failed in a bid to recall Joe Hart early from his loan spell with Birmingham City.

Fulop will go straight into the squad for the Villa game and it will be a straight shootout between himself and Faroe Islander Gunnar Nielsen for the spot between the posts.

Nielsen made his debut against Arsenal as a replacement for Given but doesn’t have the experience required for the Premiership just yet, hence Fulop’s arrival.

City also have injury doubts over Emmanuel Adebayor and former Villa skipper Gareth Barry.

Meanwhile, Villa boss Martin O’Neill has heaped praise on Richard Dunne who will be returning to Eastlands for the first time since leaving City in September.

“Richard deserved the reception he got in the game at Villa Park,” said O’Neill.

“Manchester City would accept he was brilliant for them over eight or nine years.

“Richard Dunne was exceptional for Man City over a long period of time. He became an iconic figure. We are just delighted to have him.”

Squads:

Manchester City (from): Nielsen, Fulop, Onuoha, Richards, Kay, Boyata, Kompany, Toure, Bridge, Garrido, Sylvinho, A Johnson, Cunningham, Zabaleta, De Jong, Barry, Bellamy, Wright-Phillips, Tevez, Santa Cruz, Adebayor, Ibrahim, Nimely.

Aston Villa (from): Friedel, Cuellar, Dunne, Collins, Warnock, Downing, Milner, Petrov, A Young, Agbonlahor, Carew, Guzan, L Young, Sidwell, Delfouneso, Heskey, Reo-Coker, Beye.

Key Players:

Manchester City – Gunner Nielsen/Martin Fulop

It’s been the talking point of the week so whoever goes between the posts for City is going to have all the attention on them. Villa will no doubt be looking to exploit any signs of weakness, particularly under the high ball with both John Carew and Emile Heskey at their disposal.

Aston Villa – James Milner

The PFA Young Player of the Year has been a revelation this season and has chipped in with a number of goals to go with his stellar performances. He will need to be kept quiet in the middle of the park if City are to win this game.

Prediction: 1 – 1 (Bellamy, Agonlahor)

This weekend we have six Premier League fixtures and two FA Cup semi finals at Wembley. As far as difficult games to predict go, FA Cup semi finals rank pretty highly, but I will take a look at where the best value lies for those looking for a speculative punt.

Aston Villa V Chelsea

First of all, a repeat of chelsea’s 7-1 hammering from a fortnight ago looks to be priced at around 150/1. In my opinion you’d be better off throwing your money down the nearest drain.

Aston Villa are looking to reach their second domestic final of the season and will be determined to redeem themselves from that drumming. On this premise, odds of 9/2 for a Villa win are good value.

Following that, all the prices on the correct score market for a Villa win are extremely good value.

A 1-0 win for Villa is priced at 12/1, a 2-1 win at 16/1 and a 2-0 win at 28/1. This is outstanding value for what is likely to be a tight and cagey semi final and if you are confident that Villa will win, get on them at these prices.

Chelsea have found some decent form in recent weeks and will be brimming with confidence after their victory over Manchester United last weekend. Their 7-1 demolition of Villa will also be fresh in the memory of exactly what they can achieve against this opposition.

They looked firmly in control for much of the game against Manchester United a week ago, and if Chelsea can recreate this form from kick-off on Saturday they will be very difficult to beat.

A 2-1 Chelsea win is best priced at 15/2, less than half the odds for the same scoreline in favour of Aston Villa. Despite being a likely final score, these odds represent little value in a game which could easily swing the other way. If you think Chelsea will win, backing them to win 3-1 at 12/1 would be a better punt.

I think both teams will score. After that it is anyone’s guess.

As this is the FA Cup, anything can happen. And in the spirit of the world’s greatest cup competition, I would be inclined to have a punt on the underdogs, Aston Villa to win at 9/2. The correct score is a nightmare to predict but any that see Villa win by one goal represent outstanding value.

A note to bare in mind with Aston Villa in any game is the first goalscorer. Gabby Agbonglahor is always a likely contender and usually scores early on in games, meaning you do not have to wait long for a return. At odds of 8/1 to score first in this game, it has extra value.

My bets:

Aston Villa to win 2-1 (@ 16/1)

Agbonglahor to score first (@ 8/1)

Tottenham V Portsmouth

Tottenham are understandably massive favourites for this one and it will be an achievement if injury-racked Portsmouth find enough players to turn up at Wembley on Sunday.

Pompey are currently 10/1 to win this game and progress to the FA Cup final, and you can be sure they will put up a solid fight.

If you fancy a punt on a fairytale ending to Portsmouth’s troubled season, you can get odds of 50/1 for them to win 2-0. Even if you think they have enough fight to take it to extra time you can get odds of 9/1 and 25/1 for a 1-1 or a 2-2 draw respectively.

In truth, I cannot see this one going anywhere other than a comfortable win for Tottenham. The only odds that represent any value in the correct score market barring an absolute drumming are Tottenham to win 4-1 at 20/1.

You can gain extra value by betting on the half time correct score. This way, a 2-0 Spurs lead would return odds of 11/2 and a 3-0 lead 18/1.

My bets:

Tottenham to win 4-1 (@ 20/1)

Tottenham to be leading 2-0 at half time (@11/2)

Blackburn Rovers V Manchester United

Wayne Rooney is actually out of this one which means a return to the midweek hypothesis of goals coming from midfield. Against Bayern I tipped Nani to score first but, despite netting twice, he was beaten to the first goal by Darren Gibson.

This weekend I fancy Nani to build on his outstanding midweek performance and score first against Blackburn on Sunday. At odds of 15/2 again, it is very good value if he starts.

Similarly, If Paul Scholes is back in the starting line up, he might be worth a punt for first goalscorer at 12/1.

I am expecting a tough game for United. Blackburn have been reasonably strong at home this season and have punched above their weight on occasions. I think United will win by one or two goals.

1-0 and 2-0 wins for Manchester United are both priced at 13/2 and represent reasonable value.

My bet:

Manchester United to win 2-0 (@ 13/2)

Nani to score first (@ 15/2)

Good luck!

It feels weird not having to scrape a team together, and if anything it has been difficult to pick a team because there are too many players that could do a job.

Aston Villa’s double gameweek makes their players an obvious choice for inclusion, and we have replaced Wolves’ Jody Craddock with James Collins.

He joins fellow team mate Carlos Cuellar in the team, and while having two defenders from the same team is quite a risk, if they keep two clean sheets it will have been well worth it.

The only injury doubt at the moment is Cesc Fabregas and as a result the captaincy has been handed over to Manchester United‘s in form striker Wayne Rooney.

He is one of three United players in the side alongside Darren Fletcher and Patrice Evra, and they could all score highly at home to Fulham.

The return of both Didier Drogba and Carlos Tevez after a week off is a massive boost and, along with Rooney, they make up an extremely potent forward line.

Joe Hart takes over from Thomas Sorensen in goal due to Birmingham City’s good home record and is joined by Roger Johnson in the side, though Lee Bowyer drops to the bench alongside Stoke’s Matthew Etherington and Portsmouth’s Jamie O’Hara.

Last week’s points haul of 38 points wasn’t too bad considering only eight players actually played.

Fabregas started so well as captain, scoring in the first half for Arsenal, but limped off shortly after.

Defenders Leighton Baines and Patrice Evra chipped in nicely, while Jamie O’Hara picked up an assist and two bonus points for Pompey.

The team currently sits in 39,667th position out of a total of 2,283,731 teams.

Team for Gameweek 30 -

A last gasp Fernando Torres strike handed Liverpool a vital victory in the race for fourth tonight at Villa Park.

The snow was relentless as both sides fought to keep in contention of the league’s fourth spot currently held by Tottenham.

The home side got off to the better start, winning the first corner just after the first minute after some confusion in the Liverpool box. But the visitors soon began to dominate with the better ball retention in the middle of the park. The players knocked the ball around the centre patiently, but cracking down Villa’s backline proved elusive until two minutes into injury time when Fernando Torres latched onto his only opportunity of the game for a dramatic smash and grab.

Villa were pushed back for much of the opening half despite their home advantage, as Liverpool were denied a clear cut penalty when Richard Dunne charged rashly through Dirk Kuyt in the box which was met with a blank expression from referee Lee Probert.

Brad Friedel was called into action for the first time when Gerrard whipped the ball goal-wards in trademark fashion. Fortunately for the American the ball spun centrally and he was able to palm it over the bar for a corner.

Aston Villa’s best opportunity of the game fell to the unmarked Stewart Downing at the far post of a Villa corner. The cross eluded everyone before Downing met it with a sweet strike that was denied incredibly by Pepe Reina. Downing was about to wheel away in celebration, but the strike was denied magnificently by the reactive ‘keeper.

Villa were denied again by Reina twenty minutes into the second half which so far went without a sign of a goal. A long ball forward put Agbonlahor into a foot race with Jamie Carragher, who slipped, but Gabby’s left footed strike was saved comfortably by the Spaniard who had just spent three minutes getting his own left boot replaced.

The home side threatened again, again from a corner. The ball found John Carew open on the edge of the six-yard box who headed low towards the far post, only to see it spin agonizingly wide of the unmarked post. Villa had a penalty shout of their own a moment later when Emiliano Insua misjudged a header and nodded the ball onto his own arm, a decision that would have been incredibly harsh against the player.

Another of a number of set pieces were fluffed by Villa late on which led to the winning goal. Stephen Warnock slipped at the wrong time at left back, giving Kuyt the chance to play the ball into Benayoun just outside the box. Steve Sidwell slid in to cut it out, but the ball deflected back off the Israeli and into the path of Torres, who kept his composure and slotted the ball into the far corner past Brad Friedel, scoring his 50th Premier League goal for Liverpool, becoming the fastest player at the club to do so.

Match Facts:

Aston Villa: Friedel, L Young, Cuellar, Dunne, Warnock, Reo-Coker (Albrighton), Milner, Petrov, Downing (Sidwell), Agbonlahor, Carew

Liverpool: Reina, Johnson (Skrtel), Carragher, Agger, Insua, Lucas, Benayoun (Aurelio), Gerrard, Aquilani (Babel), Kuyt, Torres.

Attendance: 42,778

Bookings: Dunne, 41; Lucas, 43

Ten days. That’s how long Arsenal believe that Cesc Fabregas will be out for following his early departure from Wednesday’s game with Burnley, yet thousands of mangers have taken the decision to dump him from their team.

While a sensible short term measure, Fabregas’ value has gone up so much that most would not be able to buy him back in a fortnight’s time, myself included. This is exactly the situation where substitutes become inportant in fantasy football.

The midweek games provided some solid points, justifying the decision to play the wildcard. New addition James Milner immediately proved his worth with 13 points thanks to a goal, an assist and three bonus points.

Despite going off early, Fabregas still managed to find the net, and Fernando Torres came off the bench to score for Liverpool.

Bolton’s Gary Cahill scored well yet again, bagging 11 points, while clean sheets from Patrice Evra and Stephen Warnock added to a healthy total of 62 points.

The team currently sits 22,999th in place out of a total of 2,196,036 teams.

The only transfer for this gameweek sees Roger Johnson sold and Wolves’ Jody Craddock come in. Craddock has proved this season that he knows where the goal is, and having had a game off thanks to Mick McCarthy’s much debated midweek team selection, he should be raring to go at home to Burnley tomorrow.

Didier Drogba has been declared fit for Chelsea, and his return is a massive boost. Torres should hopefully start against Portsmouth and Clint Dempsey returns after having a gameweek off.

James Milner is possibly the league’s most in-form player right now and has been given the captain’s armband for the home game against Stoke City. I can’t see a clean sheet for the Potters so Thomas Sorensen and Ryan Shawcross both drop to the bench for this one, alongside Sunderland’s Andy Reid.

Team for Gameweek 17 -

The tie of the weekend is undoubtedly Arsenal‘s trip to the north west to face under-fire Liverpool. Liverpool take many positives from their Fiorentina defeat during the week with the comeback of Fernando Torres to spearhead the Red attack and the debut of Italian saviour Alberto Aquilani. Glenm Johnson is set for a recall to the line-up after being rested against La Viola, as does Pepe Reina and Jamie Carragher. Alberto Aquilai may be rewarded for his patience with a starting berth beside Javier Mascherano after a solid debut. Back-to-full-fitness looking Steven Gerrard will captain the side behind the main man, Fernando Torres. Arsenal’s young guns lost out during the week in their final Champions League tie, so a waft of changes are expected for the trip. Cesc Fabregas will return to the middle of the park, as will Andrey Arshavin who will be keen to emulate his already iconic four-goal haul at Anfield last season. Arsenal are still without Robin van Persie with his long term ankle injury, and Tomas Rosicky has been ruled out after limping off last week. Theo Walcott played against Olimpiacos, and might start on the right on Sunday. Aaron Ramsey’s recent impressive displays will grant him a spot in the squad.

In another appealing tie, on-form Aston Villa travel to Old Trafford to face Manchester Utd who have come within two points of league leaders Chelsea. After midweeks demolition of Wolfsburg shielded by a make-shift defense, their injury problems have somewhat eased. Nemanja Vidic returns to bolster a weakened back-line, but will be paired with Michael Carrick for the first time in the position, moving Darren Fletcher back in to the midfield. Wayne Rooney and Dimitar Berbatov have both overcome slight knocks, and Ryan Giggs will be at his freshest after a weeks rest. Aston Villa have also been bolstered with the return of defender James Collins who has missed the last month with injury. However, Carlos Cueller’s recent run of form may secure another game alongside Richard Dunne in the defense. The ever impressive James Milner will take up his new role in the centre of the park where his magnificent versatility has seemed to find him his best position, while Stewart Downing and Ashley Young will take up the wide areas.

This week’s games:

Stoke v Wigan
Birmingham v West Ham
Bolton v Man City
Burnley v Fulham
Chelsea v Everton
Hull City v Blackburn
Sunderland v Portsmouth
Tottenham v Wolves
Man Utd v Aston Villa
Liverpool v Arsenal

Carlo Ancelotti’s side had taken an early lead at the City of Manchester Stadium after an unfortunate own goal by Emmanuel Adebayor, but were undone by a goal from the Togo international at the right end and a Carlos Tevez free kick.

City keeper Shay Given saved a late penalty from Frank Lampard to prevent an eighth consecutive draw in the league. The win ends a great week for Mark Hughes’ men after they defeated Arsenal on Wednesday night to claim a spot in the Carling Cup semi finals.

Cross-city rivals United overcame injury problems to comfortably see off West Ham at Upton Park, thus closing the gap on Chelsea to just two points.

Paul Scholes opened the scoring just on half time, with Darron Gibson, Antonio Valencia and Wayne Rooney completing the 4-0 win.

Arsenal got back to winning ways with a 2-0 win over Stoke at the Emirates. Cesc Fabregas missed an early penalty before Andrei Arshavin and Aaron Ramsey both found the net.

Liverpool‘s poor run of form continued with a dour 0-0 draw against Blackburn at Ewood Park, and have been overtaken by Aston Villa in the table after Martin O’Neill’s side easily disposed of Hull City by three goals to nil.

Portsmouth beat Burnley 2-0 in the early game, and Birmingham came from behind to defeat Wigan at the DW Stadium as Sebastian Larsson struck twice.

A win for Wolves at Molineux against Bolton lifted them from 19th spot at the expense of their opponents, but they remain in the bottom three.

In Sunday’s games, a Bobby Zamora header was enough for Fulham to overcome Sunderland, while Everton came from two goals down to salvage a point against Tottenham at Goodison Park, with Jermaine Defoe missing a last minute penalty for the visitors.

Spurs raced into a two-goal second half lead through Defoe and Michael Dawson but were pegged back thanks to strikes from Louis Saha and Tim Cahill.

Results:

Arsenal 2 – 0 Stoke City

Aston Villa 3 – 0 Hull City

Blackburn Rovers 0 – 0 Liverpool

Everton 1 – 2 Tottenham Hotspur

Fulham 1 – 0 Sunderland

Manchester City 2 – 1 Chelsea

Portsmouth 2 – 0 Burnley

West Ham United 0 – 4 Manchester United

Wigan Athletic 1 – 3 Birmingham City

Wolverhampton Wanderers 2 – 1 Bolton Wanderers

The semi finals of the Carling Cup got a little bit more interesting last night when Manchester rivals City and United were drawn to face each other for a place at Wembley.

City overcame a young Arsenal side comfortably in their quarter final while holders United defeated Tottenham, whom they beat in last year’s showpiece, 2-0 on Tuesday.

Second half goals from Carlos Tevez, Shaun Wright-Phillips and youngster Vladimir Weiss lit up the City of Manchester Stadium and guided the club to its first major semi final since the FA Cup in 1981.

Manager Mark Hughes said he was looking forward to facing his former club in such a big game.

“I think the United draw was meant to be,” he told the club’s official website.

“I don’t know whether Fergie will stick with the kids, they have some very good ones. They defeated a near full strength Tottenham side but we know we can compete with them.”

In last night’s other game, league leaders Chelsea were dumped out of the competition by Blackburn Rovers after a penalty shootout.

The game finished 3-3 after extra time and Paul Robinson was the hero for Rovers, saving spot kicks from Michael Ballack and Gael Kakuta.

The Ewood Park club will face Aston Villa in the semi final after Martin O’Neill’s men defeated Portsmouth 4-2 on Tuesday.

CARLING CUP SEMI-FINAL DRAW:

Manchester City v Manchester United
Blackburn v Aston Villa

The ties will take place over two legs in the weeks commencing January 4 and 18.

Liverpool v Manchester City 12:45, Anfield

With just one win in their last five, Liverpool host Man City at Anfield who have drawn their last five. City have been one team tipped to take Liverpool’s top four spot, and here is their chance to prove a point. Liverpool have been handed a major boost ahead of this one as four of their starting eleven travelled to the magical Serbian horse placenta treatment. Glen Johnson, Yossi Benayoun, Fabio Aurelio and Albert Riera are all expected to be involved now, as well as Steven Gerrard. Fernando Torres won’t be included, but Jamie Carragher returns from suspension.

For City, Robinho makes his long awaited return to the side after getting injured in an international against Brazil in September. Craig Bellamy has overcome an injury to make the squad, but Martin Petrov is out with a knee injury.

Prediction: Liverpool are bolstered with the return of some big names, home win.

Chelsea v Wolverhampton Wanderers 15:00, Stamford Bridge

Chelsea haven’t conceded at home since the opening day of the season, as Mick McCarthy and co. travel to Stamford looking to end to their run without a win. Chelsea are without dynamic duo Frank Lampard and Didier Drogba, as well as Michael Ballack, Jose Boswinga and Deco. Gael Kakuta, the player at the centre of the poaching young players row, is expected to start on the bench.

Wolves are pleased to have defender Kevin Foley back after knee ligament damage. The Irishman has only made three appearances this season. Ronald Zubar is a doubt, while Michael Mancienne is ineligible to play against his parent club. Kevin Doyle is expected to start from the bench after the French game midweek.

Prediction: Despite missing Lampard and Drogba, a home win.

Sunderland v Arsenal 15:00, Stadium of Light

In-form and injury hit Arsenal visit the Stadium of Light which hasn’t seen a loss in five games. Marton Fulop returns to the number one spot in place of Craig Gordon who broke his arm against Spurs two weeks ago. Fraizer Campbell should start with Jones sitting out the second of his three match ban. Michael Turner is suspended, but Lorik Cana returns to the centre field.

Arsenal are without Robin van Persie who suffered an ankle injury on international duty. Kieron Gibbs is also out, but England winger Theo Walcott returns from a knee problem. Nicklas Bendter is still short of fitness, but Denilson, Jack Wilshere, Carlos Vela and Armand Traore all return to the fold.

Prediction: Losing RVP is a big blow, but Arsenal should have enough firepower in Fabregas, Eduardo and company.

Manchester United v Everton 17:30, Old Trafford

Man Utd have won five and drawn one of their six home matches this season and face an Everton side who have lost only one of their last six fixtures in the Premier League. Nemanja Vidic is the main returnee for Utd after overcoming a thigh injury. Rio Ferdinand is out however, along with John O’ Shea who limped out of the Stade de France.

Everton are without the suspended Diniyar Bilyaletdinov. Tim Cahill is a doubt after returning from national duty with Australia, as David Moyes faces a selection headache with no Louis Saha, Jack Rodwell, Leon Osmon, Phil Neville or Steven Pienaar.

Prediction: Man Utd will have too much firepower for Everton to handle.

Saturday 21st November 2009

Birmingham City v Fulham – Home
Burnley v Aston Villa – Away
Hull City v West Ham United – Away

Sunday 22nd November 2009

Bolton Wanderers v Blackburn Rovers – Away
Tottenham Hotspur v Wigan Athletic – Home
Stoke City v Portsmouth – Home