The return of the Premier League last weekend saw us land two out of two selections. Everton won to nil against a Stoke side struggling for goals and Dimitar Berbatov did the business by scoring. We only needed him to score once, but he was happy to bag a brace and we won’t complain about that.
Looking at the betting markets in general, the relegation places are two thirds filled, with Reading and QPR priced as short as 1/40 and 1/16 respectively to go down. That leaves Aston Villa 8/5, Sunderland 15/8 and Wigan 5/2, as the other likely contenders to face the drop in an open and exciting betting heat.
Who will finish in the top four? There are two places left to be filled and the market tells us that they will likely be taken by Chelsea and Arsenal. The Blues have the best chance at odds of 2/5, which is short but far from certain. After that we have Gunners at odds of 13/20, while Tottenham are available at 11/10. Everton who are just four points off fourth spot are the outsiders and will be of interest to some at attractive odds of 10/1.
Moving on to this weekend, lets see if we can continue our end of season form by picking out a couple of winning bets.
QPR v Wigan
QPR must try to win every remaining game and I expect them to go all out for the win here. They don’t have a choice really. Even if they feel they are already relegated, the world is watching and players’ attitudes and application are being monitored. There is pride to play for too of course.
Wigan have been excellent with five victories in their last six matches. They are playing with confidence and should attempt to gain all three points at Loftus Road. They are far from safe, so a win would be outstanding for the them and they should look at this fixture as an excellent opportunity.
Looking at the stats, there have been three or more goals in 5 of the last 6 matches that QPR have played and in 8 of the last 9 that Wigan have contested. Given the expected openness that this game may produce, I don’t see any reason why this trend will end and I will be backing this outcome.
Bet Selection: Over 2.5 goals @ 10/11 with Boylesports
Liverpool v West Ham
Liverpool have been in fine form. They have won four of their last five league matches, scoring 15 goals and conceding just 6 in the process. Steven Gerrard has been in excellent form, scoring 5 goals in his last 7 home league matches. The Liverpool captain seems to be enjoying his football. Suarez continues to show why he is a contender for player of the season, while Coutinho has fitted in very well indeed and is fast becoming a useful member of the Reds’ midfield.
Only Reading have lost more league games away from home than West Ham this season. From 15 matches on the road, the Hammers have lost 10, conceded 26 goals and scored just 9.
I strongly fancy Liverpool for the win here but they are too short at 4/11. So I will instead by looking for another home goal from Steven Gerrard in combination with a Reds win.
Bet Selection: Steven Gerrard to score and Liverpool to win (Score/Win Double) @ 21/10 with Sky Bet