Champions League projections 2013/14

by Back Page Football

Bloomberg Sports (BSports) today unveiled its purely objective projections for the 2013/2014 UEFA Champions League. The projections are available online alongside updated projections for Europe’s top five leagues.

Tournament winner: Barcelona defy the bookmakers

These purely objective, data-driven projections provide odds for each team winning the tournament, winning their group and qualifying from their group. They also highlight where bookmakers have either undervalued or overvalued certain teams.

  • Compared to bookmakers, BSports gives Barcelona a better chance to win (21.3%) than Bayern Munich (18.9%).
  • Real Madrid (16.7%) are the most likely team to push Barcelona and Bayern Munich.
  • Chelsea (8.9%) have better odds of winning the Champions League than both Manchester-based clubs.
  • BSports data indicates Manchester City (7.2%) have a better chance of winning than Manchester United (6.4%).

 

Group stages: English teams to qualify for Round of 16
  • Despite David Moyes’ inexperience in the Champions League, Manchester United are favourites to qualify (84.8%) from Group A. They are also favourites to win the group at 60.9%.
  • In Group F, the so-called ‘group of death’, little separates Arsenal (62.6%) and Dortmund (60.9%) for the top two places.
  • Manchester City (87.2%) and Bayern Munich (94.9%) are both expected to qualify from Group D, however City’s chances of winning the group are almost half Bayern Munich’s, with tougher opponents likely in the next round.
  • BSports gives Chelsea a better chance (77%) of winning Group E compared to bookmakers and they are almost odds-on to qualify (95%) from their group.

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For more information, as well as match analysis, check out the BSports website.

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