Having been released only nine days previously during Roberto Mancini’s end of season cull, third-choice goalkeeper Stuart Taylor has signed a new contract to remain attached to the Blues for a further two years. With England’s Joe Hart primed to take on one of the Premier League and indeed world’s best in Shay Given for the starting berth at Eastlands; you must ask yourself why a goalkeeper who has a Premier League winner’s medal in his locker is seemingly content to sit around and watch others battle for the limelight.

Whilst an opportunity knocked for the ex-Arsenal and Aston Villa man to seek first-team football elsewhere, albeit at a lower level and with a smaller club, he has again seen fit to sign on the dotted line and take out his tweezers in preparation for another season battling splinters. Having started out as an apprentice to David Seaman at Highbury, the 29 year old’s career seems to have bounced from one bench to another as he seems destined to always play the bridesmaid, and never the bride. It seems harsh to question a man‘s motives and especially one whom I have never met; but is it simply explainable that the man once described by Arsené Wenger as “a big talent” is happy enough to take a wage for turning up for training each day?

Soccerbase’s detailed statistics list Romford-born Taylor as having made just 86 first team appearances in a career which has now spanned over a decade. Indeed, his solidarity appearance last season came in a weakened Manchester City side which defeated Scunthorpe United at the glamorous Glanford Park in the third round of the FA Cup, deputising for a rested Given. He missed out on further appearances towards the end of the season as a knee injury put paid to his chances of helping City secure a Champions League place, Mancini instead utilising Gunnar Nielsen and loanee Martin Fulop. Whilst I can appreciate managers want a squad with depth and players of a certain standard available to play in the event of the worst injury crisis, could even the most patient footballer with any sort of professional pride sign a contract that he knows will consign him as no more than an able deputy? Whilst goalkeepers are perhaps able to wait that little bit longer for an opportunity to arise (Steve Harper at Newcastle being the prime example in recent years), is there not a stage when that desire for a slice of competitive action becomes too much?

In recent years, the search for first team action has seen other English goalkeepers Scott Carson, Ben Foster and fellow City ‘stopper Joe Hart take a year or two out from their parent clubs to go away and gain valuable experience at the top level, which has in turn awarded them all with international recognition. I especially doff my cap to Foster, who in making a permanent move to Birmingham City, has recognised that he sees himself as better than an annual Carling Cup winners medal and playing third-fiddle to Van der Sar and Kuszczak in the battle for Sir Alex’s affections. Taylor’s mentality however, seems to have differed from his goalkeeping peers. Bar fleeting emergency deals at Peterborough, Leicester and Cardiff; he has instead chosen to stay within a comfort zone that has seen his reputation regress from one of the more promising young custodians at the top level to that of an unambitious, wasted and forgotten talent.

With a financially-backed Manchester City expected to continue their rapid growth into a European footballing superpower in the coming years, will there ever be an occasion when City fans are willing to accept an unfashionable Taylor as a suitable replacement when the rest of the team are seen as galaticos in comparison? I tend to think not, especially when his appearance will more than likely have come as a result of the absence of the preferred pair of gloves at the club. I know that stereotypically goalkeepers have been of a select breed and not famed for their intelligence, but there must be an occasion when his spectating role finally expires and his mentality changes.

The next time Taylor sits down (and being bench-ridden he should be used to it) and watches the latest Championship or Scottish Premier League round up, he’ll see goalkeepers of an inferior ability playing week-in week-out in front of tens of thousands of supporters, plying their trade at the highest level they possibly can. Should he decide he is tired of arguably the “easiest job in football” and fancies another crack at a first-team berth, I’m sure that there would be a queue of clubs ready to provide him with an opportunity. Until such a time, the next time you’ll see the perennial substitute in action may possibly be in a reserve team match near you. Be sure to ask him where on earth he has been.

Despite leading Leeds United to the brink of domestic and European glory in his first role as a club manager,  O’Leary has struggled to convince potential employers of his credentials since leaving Villa in June 2006.

The London born 52 year-old has remained in the thoughts of media and bookmakers alike during his time out of the game however, frequently being linked with vacated managerial spots. Most recently, O’Leary had been linked with Hull City only for the position to be filled by Nigel Pearson in late June.

Based in Dubai, Al-Ahli have clearly decided to make a big push for success in the coming season having also secured the signing of former World Player of the Year, Fabio Cannavaro. As hosts and 2008-2009 UAE Champions, the club took part in last year’s FIFA World Club Championship held in Dubai but featured in only one game losing their opening encounter to Auckland City.

They ended the 2009-2010 season in 8th place, a position deemed unsatisfactory by demanding owners who have gone through seven managers in the past five years. O’Leary has signed a three-year contract.

Increasingly unpredictable matches mean that there is plenty of value in these markets. I have managed to find, what I think are some very good bets in a number of games over the next few days.

Portugal V North Korea

North Korea’s resilient display against Brazil in their first match was extremely impressive. And given Portugal’s poor preparation, the remarkably off-colour Cristiano Ronaldo and the increasing trend for shocking results in this World Cup. There is good value in a punt for them to win this one at 8/1.

More realistically however, is to say that their unbridled commitment and sheer passion might see them poach a goal. Portugal are, on paper, by far the better team, and after a nervy 0-0 draw in their first match against the Ivory Coast, I expect them to improve and win this one.

One thing we can be sure of is that North Korea will make it very difficult by parking the bus in a truly regimented fashion. For this reason I would be wary of predicting a thrashing. Value for a draw (7/2) can be extended by backing a 1-1 scoreline in the correct score market. This returns odds of 17/2.

However, the same odds are offered for Portugal to win 2-1, which in all honesty looks like  a more sensible bet.

Ronaldo

Without wishing to overuse ‘bus’ cliches, the old London bus expression is worth a mention in terms of Cristiano Ronaldo’s goalscoring potential. Having not scored for his country in a competitive match since Euro 2008, this is just the sort of game where he might fancy a couple.

Ronaldo is 7/2 to score a brace, and 16/1 to score a hat-trick, although the latter seems slightly optimistic against a likely 11 man defence. Better value can be found in an ambitious punt for Ronaldo to score in the first ten minutes. At 17/2, you have to believe that an early tester from distance might just find the net.

Maybe I am getting overexcited. If you fancy this one to be another tight and cagey stalemate, a 0-0 draw returns fantastic odds of 9/1. I cannot see this one being goalless but if you can, snap up the odds.

My bets:

Portugal to win 2-1 (@ 17/2)

Christiano Ronaldo to score in the first ten minutes (@ 17/2)

France V South Africa

France’s tournament went from bad to worse this week after striker Nicolas Anelka was sent home for his half time altercation with coach Raymond Domenech. The French camp is now deeply and publicly divided and their hopes of qualifying for the last 16 stage of the tournament are hanging from the thinnest of threads.

South Africa on the other hand are as good as out of the World Cup, but the hosts are not going to disappear quietly. The host nation has been a non-stop party since the tournament kicked off ten days ago and you can be sure that Bafana Bafana will give everything they have got to ensure they leave their mark on the pitch as well as off it.

France have not only failed to score in their first two games, but have looked decidedly uncreative and wholly uninterested. For this reason a South African victory is by no means out of the question. A 1-0 win is priced at 9/1 whilst a 2-0 victory is 20/1. Both of these prices are extremely good value considering the difference in mindset of these two teams.

With South Africa’s defence not entirely water tight, the main question is whether France can regroup and perform to potential. This one could be an uninspiring goalless draw as both teams lack attacking flair in current form. But, the optimist in me is hoping poor defence on both sides contributes to a more thrilling encounter.

My bet:

South Africa to win 1-0 (@ 9/1)

Greece V Argentina

Diego Maradona’s Argentina side are already through to the last 16, and they might be forgiven for fielding a slightly under strength team against Greece on Tuesday. However, there are three things which should be remembered. The first is that with an abundance of attacking talent, an ‘under strength’ team for Argentina still possess the capability to score freely. The second is that Argentina have not yet actually won the group and will be keen to secure another three points. And the third is that, on the evidence of their performances so far Argentina simply do not have a clue how to play in a more restrained fashion.

With all that in mind, I fancy Argentina to win this one comfortably. However, they do have a defence which is prone to leaking goals, and for that reason a Greece goal is not out of the question.

Odds of Argentina to win 3-0 (10/1), 3-1 (14/1) and 4-1 (33/1) are all extraordinary value. I’ll leave it for you to pick your result.

Good luck!

Now that the nation seems to have decided that Fabio is at best incompetent and at worst a mad foreigner intent on ruining our best squad since 2006, I think it appropriate to share with you an anecdote that describes why Capello only names his team two hours before kickoff. (I found this in Gabriele Marcotti’s excellent biography of Capello, and it would do no harm at all to have it plastered in poster form on the walls of every newspaper office in London)

The year is 1993. Capello’s AC Milan, Champions of Italy and Champion’s League runners up, are flying out to Tokyo to face Sao Paulo in the World Club Cup (Marseille, the team that beat them in the CL final have been banned under allegations of match fixing). On the plane is Dejan Savicevic, a Yugoslavian playmaker of ludicrous talent and non-existent work rate. Savicevic is under a two game FIFA ban after being sent off whilst playing for the national team. Before he boarded the plane Capello was informed that the ban would count for the World Club Cup, and that Il Genio would be unavailable for the competition.

So Capello informs the Yugoslavian of this, and while he is unhappy it is obviously no-one’s fault but his own. Capello then sits next to Florin Raducioiu, a 23 year old Romanian who has so far suffered quite a poor season, and tells him that he will be starting against Sao Paulo, a fact which is confirmed when the starting line up is announced the night before the game. However, the next morning, a message arrives from FIFA, who have decided that the ban applies only to the national team and that Savicevic is eligible to play, which surely, everyone assumes, means he will play. Instead, Capello keeps Raducioiu in the line up, something which infuriates Savicevic and provokes a backlash amongst both media and players and requires personal intervention from club owner Silvio Berlusconi to smooth relations. From then on Capello always waited until just a couple of hours before kickoff to name his starting lineup.

So, far from being an irrational lunatic, Capello has got the best of reasons for the way he names his starting lineup. During coverage of the Honduras vs Chile game earlier Marcel Desailly was complaining that Capello should inform the players at least a day before the game. This being the same Marcel Desailly who played under Capello between 1993 and 1996, winning two league titles and a Champions League in this time. I’d bet more than the 50p I put on North Korea winning against Brazil that he wasn’t complaining then.

It is all too easy to imagine a similar scenario to the one described above occurring in the England camp, given the state of Gareth Barry’s ankle and Ledley King’s groin, which could lead to a breakdown in team spirit when we need it most.

“Aaaaargh!!!!!!”

Its benefits seem to be mainly for a smaller club, who would be unable to buy a player outright, but owning half gives them greater control over their squads than a loan. Big clubs often insert half a players rights in order to buy a player from these clubs.

There are number of high profile cases where clubs made real errors of judgement which ended up costing them large sums to rectify, the biggest of which probably concerns Brazilian striker Adriano. In 2002 Inter “sold” half his rights to Parma for £4 million only to see him score 22 goals in 36 league appearances. Buying back that same share cost Inter £13.5 million.

FIGC rules dictate these agreements must be in place for a minimum of two years, and have strict guidelines. Every year, towards the end of June (in 2010 the deadline is June 25) clubs must renew these deals. This usually sees a rush of confirmed deals ahead of the deadline, as failure to agree by then sees the players rights go to a blind auction between the clubs involved. In Italy this is known as “going to the envelopes”.

Bonucci: Stuck in the middle

Directors hate the thought of losing a player for less than market value, or being outbid for a player they wish to keep, and therefore do all they can to avoid the process. A few years ago Fiorentina, back in Serie A after their demotion to the lower leagues paid £13.5 million for half shares in Giorgio Chiellini, Fabrizio Micolli and Enzo Maresca only to lose all three for £6.7 million at auction a year later. Their precocious financial state prevented better bids and Juve took full advantage.

Fiorentina benefited in the case of Danish International Martin Jorgensen, who they signed for virtually nothing after Udinese bid £0 for him at “the envelopes”. Both examples show club management are right to fear this part of the process, which generally sees them do everything they can to avoid letting the deadline pass. This often sees a good player remain at a smaller club for longer than the other side would like, but it is deemed better than losing the player at auction.

Leonardo Bonucci and Domenico Criscito from the Italian World Cup Squad are both players who’s co-ownership is due to expire in just over a week’s time. With another 59 Serie A players also owned under this type of arrangement, and with the deadline growing ever closer, expect a raft of deals to be “confirmed” this week. There will also be a number of new deals done, all of which adds to an already interesting transfer window as everyone desperately scrambles to avoid the dreaded envelopes.

This article first appeared on the il Tifosi blog

This is the thinking behind this new series of articles for back page tips. The idea is to highlight good accumulator bets covering every three days of the World Cup. This will give you a vested interest in some of the less appealing games, and keep you glued to your television routing for teams you have never previously cared much for.

So here are my selections for the next three days. Select the teams in CAPITALS to win.

BRAZIL v North Korea

The five time world champions should ease past North Korea on Tuesday. There is no easier way of explaining how one sided this game should be than to quote the odds themselves. Brazil are 1/9 for the win, whilst the North Korea side, appearing in their first World Cup since 1966 are priced way out at 22/1. Should they win, we can safely say, it will be the biggest upset in the history of the tournament.

With Brazil trading at such a short price, you might think that it is not worth having a bet at all. However, these are exactly the types of matches you need to include in your accumulators. Without this result selected, the cumulative odds of all your selections winning will drop dramatically.

If you are confident that Brazil will win by quite a few goals, why not replace a simple bet for Brazil to win, with a handicap bet in your accumulator. Brazil are evens to run out with a victory by more than two goals. Again, it does not look like there is much value in this, but once it is selected as part of a larger accumulator, it’s value will increase.

IVORY COAST v Portugal

This one is extremely difficult to call. Ivory Coast are well fancied to finish above Portugal in group G, but it will probably all come down to their head-to-head. It would be easy to leave this one out of an accumulator if you really could not call it, but, by taking a bit of a risk, you can find extra value.

I am more inclined to back the Ivory Coast to win. They have quality all over the pitch and represent Africa’s best hope in the tournament alongside Ghana and, possibly Cameroon. The fact that the tournament is on home turf and the now customary buzz of the Vuvuzelas will help the Ivory Coast’s cause.

Alongside Portugal’s poor form coming into the World Cup, the statistic that sold this result for me is that Christiano Ronaldo has not scored a competitive goal for Portugal since Euro 2008.

SPAIN v Switzerland

Spain are favourites for the competition and I expect them to take care of Switzerland without too many problems. The European champions are a team in their absolute prime and have immense quality throughout their squad. If they can reproduce anything like the form they did during Euro 2008, they will ease past the Swiss and sail to victory in group H.

ARGENTINA v South Korea

This is an interesting one. Both teams won their opening games and played reasonably well, although there is room for improvement in both camps. Argentina looked shaky at the back against Nigeria on Saturday and it would not surprise me if South Korea scored. However, with arguably the most attacking prowess in the competition and a front three who combined to score over 100 goals for their club sides last season, I cannot see Argentina being so wasteful in front of goal against South Korea. Overall I think Argentina will get enough chances to win this one and they will continue to improve as the tournament progresses.

CHILE v Honduras

These are two teams I confess to knowing little about. However, having done a bit of research, I have selected Chile to win for the following reasons. After playing 18 qualifying games, Chile finished the South American group as runners up to Brazil. This is an impressive achievement given they were competing against strong teams including: Uruguay, Brazil, and Argentina (albeit that Argentina had a very patchy qualifying campaign).

In contrast, Honduras scraped into the World Cup finals on goal difference ahead of Costa Rica after playing only 10 games in the North, Central American and Caribbean qualifying group campaign against opposition which, in my view are not as strong as those in the top half of Chile’s qualifying group.

MEXICO v France

France looked very poor in their World Cup opener against Uruguay on Friday night and barely had a shot on goal in the nil-nil stalemate. In contrast, Mexico have looked good going forward in recent weeks, most notably against England at Wembley at the back end May.

Although they could only manage a 1-1 draw with South Africa, they showed signs of good attacking flair in what was avery tough, and understandably highly pressured tournament opener against the hosts. Geovanni Dos Santos looked lively, and has both the pace and creativity to cause confusion and a breakdown in communication in what is a very publicly disunited French side.

Overall odds: 30/1

Good luck!

“Those Were The Days…”

Despite the Frenchman winning every domestic honour and having taken Arsenal to the Champions League Final, he still has many critics at home and abroad. His persistence with both young, gifted players and his demand for an aesthetically pleasing style of play is often derided, it should be lauded and it is easy to see why his team is the neutral’s favourite and why the club and its fans continually back their manager. Wenger IS Arsenal, and that is most definitely a good thing. His vision has changed his team, the club, and indeed English football.

Any perceived weakness or flaw in his style of management can be explained away and countered with a differing view. But the issue of a poor sense of judgement when it comes to choosing men to don the gloves is unquestionable. Of course a number of his choices were better than expected, but most were far worse.

In the early part of his Arsenal tenure Wenger was blessed to have David Seaman between the posts, and that, along with the quality defence allowed him to concentrate on changing the mentality of his outfield players from the “boring boring Arsenal” to the free-flowing, skillful unit we see today.

The first keeper he signed for the club was also probably the best, Alex Manninger. Brought from Graz as cover, he enjoyed an incredible spell while Seaman was injured. A run of eight consecutive clean sheets, a player of the month award, his contribution to the league title of 1997/98 was undeniable. The signing of Richard Wright ended his spell at the club, but he is still playing well, currently deputising ably for Gigi Buffon at Juventus.

“Let Me Make Sure You Don’t…”

Stuart Taylor and Graham Stack were two youngsters who spent more time away on loan than at the club. Both are British, dispelling another myth about the manager’s lack of home nation players. Richard Wright was next to arrive, for £6 million in 2001 after a high-profile spell at Ipswich. He signed at the same time as Sol Campbell and Francis Jeffers – yet more English arrivals for the manager who always buys foreign players!

Wright never seemed to settle into life at a truly big club, an embarrassing substitution in the Champions League just one example of his struggles. He has never really recovered and joined Everton in 2002. As he was leaving Wenger had secured a deal to bring Fabian Carini from Juventus. Despite the Uruguayan putting on a stellar display at the 2002 World Cup he was denied a work permit. Rami Shaaban and Guillaume Warmuz did join, but both never made any real impact.

This brings us to the arrivals of Jens Lehmann and Manuel Almunia, two players who have both enjoyed long spells as Wenger’s number one. Both cost relatively little, and both have been capable of looking world class or Sunday league during the same match. Mart Poom was an able deputy for both, but never able to shift either from their automatic first choice status.

Vito Mannone has shown glimpses of brilliance since his 2006 arrival from Atalanta, probably Italy’s best club at producing young talent. Still six or seven years from being at his peak he is definately one for the future, but Arsenal cannot wait that long for a goalkeeper capable of the standard necessary at the highest level. The same could also be said of Polish International Lukasz Fabianski.

Vito Mannone: The Future?

Wojciech Szczesny and James Shea also joined last year, but both are very young and inexperienced. What Arsenal need is a player able to walk into the first team and make the difference for the club, like Petr Cech, Jose Reina and Edwin Van der Sar often for their Premier League rivals.

The problem can be at least partially explained by two traits typical of Wenger’s transfer policy. A good, established International keeper will be both more expensive and much older than the average Arsenal signing. In the past 18 months however, Wenger seems to have broken both these “rules” to add players his side really needed.

Andrei Arshavin and Sol Campbell immediately spring to mind. Both are vastly experienced, older, wiser and in the Russian’s case, expensive. This is exactly the kind of player Arsenal need in goal, where typically the Frenchman has looked to buy young and cheap options. If the club are to truly challenge for honours he will need to think along these lines once again.

Frey: French Answer?

A number of names spring to mind, all of whom would cost money but prove ultimately worth the investment. Sebastien Frey of Fiorentina has expressed an interest in a new challenge. The Frenchman is 30, which may give Wenger palpitations, but is still young for a quality goalkeeper. He has also retired from International football due to the shocking lack of involvement he has had with the national team – a real waste when you consider his proven quality.

Hugo Lloris of Lyon would cost considerably more, but at just 23 would prove a long term investment. France’s current number one, his value could soar (or indeed plummet) depending on his performance this summer. Another young star is Russia and CSKA Moscow’s Igor Akinfeev, who at only 24 is both his country’s first choice and captain of his club. He would cost in excess of £10 million but again would be a fantastic purchase.

Arsene Wenger has much to consider this summer, but a new goalkeeper should certainly be his “Number One” priority.

Mexico and Uruguay both wake up this morning unbeaten in their opening games and both can count themselves a little fortunate. Mexico dominated possession against the hosts South Africa but were only spared defeat by the woodwork in the final minute. Uruguay, down to ten men for the last ten minutes of the ninety, were forced to survive the only thing that passed for an onslaught in their tepid encounter with France. Both Mexico and Uruguay operated with what was nominally a back three. And yet, what was noticable was just how differently the two sides interpreted this system.

Mexico’s system is hard to pin down to a single notation and ITV were happy to describe it as a back four, although this seems to betray the evidence of our own eyes.   The tactics guru Zonal Marking has described it as a 3-4-3 and this seems to me a more accurate notation for how the Mexicans lined up. The so called right full-back Aguilar was often one of their most advanced players on the pitch while Rafael Marquez could regularly be found sitting in between his two centre-backs when his side had possession as they spread wider to receive the ball. This was key to the fluidity of the Mexico system and allowed them to control the majority of the game with so many options for team-mates to pick a pass.

Uruguay also showcased their interpretation of three at the back against France later in the evening, although it was to prove an altogether more staid affair. The rigid Uruguayan 3-5-2 ran into, tactically at least, the very formation that has seen it diminish as a viable option in much of Europe. Namely, the 4-5-1. With Anelka operating on his own up front and Ribery & Govou keen to support from wide, the 3-5-2 is presented with a challenge: asking the right and left centre-backs to pick them up leaves you dangerously short at the back 3 vs 3 and vulnerable to midfield runners, but asking the wing-backs to pick them up makes your system worryingly close to a flat back five. After some early Ribery forays down the left, the Pereiras were pinned back and Uruguay were largely nullified as an attacking threat, restricted to hoping their strike-force of Forlan and Suarez could nick something on the break. It was a situation Tabarez appeared comfortable with and this is clear from the substitutions he made. All three changes, even after the sending off of Lodeiro, were like-for-like changes – suggesting there was no need to alter the system as his side, whether it be 3-5-2 or 3-4-2, were set-up to defend their point even with ten men.

Mexico, on the other hand, were asking all the right questions going the other way. A major reason for this is that central question posed above – is the winger in a 4-2-3-1 to be picked up by the wing-back or the wide centre-back. Such was Mexico’s confidence in possession, they were comfortable to push the wing-backs on when they had the ball. This was where the difference in what was going on in front of them became key. Whilst the Pereiras for Uruguay would be faced by the French full-backs if they advanced, Salcido and Aguilar of Mexico were met by open space because the South African full-backs were already occupied by Giovani and Vela – the advantage of 3-4-3 over 3-5-2. Tshabalala in particular seemed all at sea defensively as he was unsure whether to close down Aguilar or pass him on to his full-back, Thwala. More often than not he let him roam and Aguilar proved the Mexican outlet of the first forty-five.

Mexico’s problem, and a problem Uruguay rarely had, was getting caught out with those wing-backs high up the field. The reasons for this were manifold and both the speed of the South African counter-attacks and the lack of pace in the Mexican defence were certainly factors. It was also significant though that Marquez was keen to get in and around Pienaar and when this was coupled with Aguilar pushing on, the first goal of the World Cup provides a clearcut example of the dangers this brings. With Marquez sweeping in front rather than behind, and Aguilar leaving spaces out wide, Tshabalala was able to take advantage of the gap down the channels to score. It was a gap that Uruguay’s more defensive-minded back three never looked likely to allow.

The use of the back three always had the potential to be a major tactical talking point in this World Cup. However, few could have expected two sides to showcase it’s strengths and weaknesses, both defensively and offensively, all in the first few hours of the tournament.

Adam Bate – Ghostgoal

England will be followed by their mandatory troop of enthusiastic supporters in South Africa whilst pubs and bars back home will be packed to the rafters on Saturday evening when they take on the USA in the first group game. But with the unquestionable passion and undying hope of football fans across the country, can England can actually return from South Africa as World Champions?

One of the best things about the World Cup is that new betting markets spring up out of nowhere. Punters can now gamble on such things as England’s first substitution and their starting eleven against the USA (for the record, Joe Hart is not in any of the available options on SkyBet)

These new markets can seem ridiculous, but for the scrupulous gamblers they provide a delightful opportunity to find that little bit of hidden value. And there is a lot of hidden value.

Can Rooney keep his cool?

A bet that jumped off the screen and hit me square in the face is odds of 5/2 on Wayne Rooney getting booked for dissent at some point during the tournament. Now, Rooney is said to have ‘grown up’ and ‘calmed down’ but he has a proven record of letting his emotions get the better of him in big matches and was booked for dissent on Monday when England took on the Platinum All Stars in their final warm up match.

Rooney’s temperment will be closely monitored by the England staff and millions of people around the world. But with the added pressure of the world’s best defenders winding him up particularly if England reach the Quarter finals, I feel that his passion for the game is impossible to control and that, he will be booked for dissent at least once in five or six matches.

My Bet:

Rooney to be booked for dissent anytime during the tournement (@ 5/2)

The Golden Boot

A man who knows a little more about football than me, Jamie Redknapp, thinks he has spotted value in the Golden Boot top five market on SkyBet. He thinks Argentine striker Carlos Tevez will be one of the top five goalscorers in this World Cup. At first I disagreed with this tip and had reservations over how much action Tevez will see in a team that has attacking flair in abundance and a manager that is prone to the odd, strange decision. However at 10/1 there is value in this unusual bet. After all, Tevez had an extremely impressive season with Manchester City.

It remains to be seen which Argentina side turns up in South Africa this summer, but with Lionel Messi yet to produce his ‘world’s greatest footballer’ form for his country, Tevez is more likely to be one of Argentina’s main goal threats.

The golden boot outright market is packed with value, but as is always the case with this sort of bet, it is a bit like trying to catch a fly in the dark.

Usual suspects include David Villa at 8/1, Wayne Rooney at 10/1 and Fernando Torres at 12/1. But an appealing outside bet is Germany’s Miroslav Klose who, at odds of 28/1, will have to do a lot, but I suppose it is not inconceivable that he could have the tournament of his life.

For me, the best value lies in Robin Van Persie. After missing the majority of the Premiership season through injury, he looks to be more determined than ever to make up for it at the World Cup and has been quoted as saying he thinks he can be as good as Lionel Messi and Wayne Rooney next season.

Since his return from injury, Van Persie has been on outstanding form for his country, meaning I am less inclined to argue with his own bold predictions of how good he can be. At 10/1 to be the World Cup’s top goalscorer, my money is on RVP to set the world alight this summer.

My Bets:

Tevez to finish in top five in Golden Boot competition (@ 10/1)

Robin Van Persie to win golden boot (@ 10/1)

The race to three goals

One of the great things about having a bet is doing a bit of research and coming to your own conclusions. After all it is your money that you will be gambling, not mine. With this in mind I would like to flag up the ‘race to three goals market’ available on SkyBet. Here you can bet on who will be the first player to score three goals at the World Cup.

Many of the bets in this market are good value including my personal choice of Robin Van Persie, who is again priced at 10/1. With a bit of work and planning by way of taking a detailed look through the fixture list, I think there is some serious money to be made in this market. So have a look and leave a comment with your tip.

So, who’s going to win it?

The million dollar question. Well, for what it’s worth, I think Spain will win the World Cup. However, at odds of 7/2 you are not going to make any significant return on a risky bet. Much better value would be to bet on the tournament winners in conjunction with the golden boot winner. For example, Spain to win the World Cup with David Villa as top goalscorer represents much better value at 16/1.

Strong fringe bets for the tournament include Germany at 14/1 and the Netherlands at 9/1 but it’s difficult to commit to backing them to actually win it. The Netherlands are always talked about as a potential force but usually fall just short of setting the world alight. Despite impressive preparations for this World Cup and my gut feeling that RVP will have a fantastic tournament. I can’t help thinking that both the Netherlands and Germany will crash out in the semi finals at the hands of a Brazil, a Spain or even an England?!

My Bet:

Spain to win the World Cup and David Villa to be top goalscorer (@ 16/1)

Throughout the World Cup I will be on a constant search for good value and will continue to post and flag up bets on matches.

In the meantime, let me know your tips by commenting on this article, in particular I want to know who you are going for in the ‘race to three goals’ market

Good Luck and enjoy!

Having escaped scares over both John Terry and Steven Gerrard in recent weeks, it seems that Fabio Capello’s good luck with injuries has finally run out and the loss of Ferdinand will be seen by many as a major set back to England’s hopes of winning their first World Cup since 1966.

Spurs centre-half Michael Dawson, who was emitted from the final 23 man squad named earlier this week has been drafted in as a replacement for the Manchester United defender, although it remains unclear as to who will take his place in the starting line up.

Ledley King is most likely to step into the breach, however it is improbable that the Spurs man will be able to feature as regularly as needed and so Capello must choose between Dawson, Matthew Upson and the recently recalled Jamie Carragher as to who else may be able to partner John Terry in the heart of the English defense. Given the importance of the Terry-Ferdinand partnership in Capello’s plans, his ability to reshuffle his pack at such an advanced stage of preparation will be a significant test of his managerial capabilities.

Ferdinand, given the captain’s armband in February following the John Terry – Wayne Bridge scandal, has been dogged by injuries all season and many pundits had expressed doubts over the likelihood of him being able to last the pace in South Africa given his semi occasional appearances for his club over the past 9 months.

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