Argentinian Apertura 2010/11 Preview

by Dan Colasimone

In collaboration with Argentina Football World

Musical Chairs

Here is a list of the last 8 winners of the Argentinian Primera Division:

Apertura 2006-07: Estudiantes

Clausura 2006-07: San Lorenzo

Apertura 2007-08: Lanus

Clausura 2007-08: River Plate

Apertura 2008-09: Boca Juniors

Clausura 2008-09: Velez Sarsfield

Apertura  2009-10: Banfield

Clausura  2009-10: Argentinos Juniors

Anything strike you as strange? Perhaps the fact that there has been a different winner in each of the past eight seasons?  It’s truly an astounding statistic, and one that you are unlikely to see repeated in many leagues around the world, at any point in history.  Equally surprising, considering the precedents in Argentinian football, is that there have only been three titles that have gone to one of the ‘big five’ clubs.  It is certainly refreshing to have so many different winners, but at the same time, looking back over that four-year period, it’s hard to remember any real standout teams.

Estudiantes, driven by talisman Juan Sebastian Veron, has been a consistent force since they beat a very good Boca Juniors team in a playoff for the 2006-07 Apertura, but surprisingly they have not managed to pick up another championship in the intervening years (although they did win the Copa Libertadores in 2009).  Boca and River’s solitary wins over the period seemed more like blips in a period of mediocrity, or even decline.  That may be a little unfair on Boca, who won the Libertadores in 2007 and had been consistently near the top of the table leading up to their Apertura victory in 2008-09, but they have fallen away sharply since, and at no stage was it truly a classic Boca Juniors team.  Otherwise, the only side that sticks in the memory is the highly entertaining tiki-taka Huracan team that was pipped to the post by a more solid Velez outfit in the 2008-09 Clausura, then promptly broken up and sent to the far ends of the universe.  In short, it’s been great to see some different names on the winner’s board, but in recent seasons, it sometimes seems that the various contenders just keep on shooting themselves in the foot until one team is left to sheepishly claim the title as everyone else hops about in agony.

The reasons for this inconsistency from one tournament to the next could take up a whole other article, but boiled down, the major factors are the highly volatile transfer market, the Copa Libertadores, and the poor run of form of the two giants of Argentinian football.  The first factor is the perennial affliction of the South American game.  As soon as a team produces a generation of talented individuals who gel together as a solid unit, rather than building a dynasty for the future, they are in fact just inviting richer European clubs to feast at their table.  The talent is usually shot off to the Old Continent in the blink of an eye, and the funds garnered tend to syphoned off toward the repayment of old debts and other, vaguer destinations.  Meanwhile, the Copa Libertadores, and to a lesser extend the Copa Sudamericana, further ensure teams have a hard time backing up after a championship win.  The glory of claiming a continental title, and having a shot at the European champions in the Club World Cup is too great to resist, and teams tend to focus their limited resources into those competitions, at the expense of defending their Primera Division crown.  The same problem has been noted often enough in Europe, with the Champions League being the ultimate goal of many clubs, but the bigger teams there now have the ability to build squads large enough to compete on several fronts, whereas financial constraints in South America make this almost impossible.  Finally, the fact that neither River nor Boca has won the title more than once in recent years goes a long way to explaining such an array of different champions.  In the past, you could usually rely on one or both of those behemoths to be battling it out at the top of the table, but recently this has not been the case.  So, whereas before it took a really special team to knock one of those two off their perch, in the last few years it has often just been a matter of outlasting other, less prestigious rivals, thus allowing teams like Lanus and Banfield to taste glory for the first time in their long histories.

Combine all this with the fact that the season is effectively split into two sprints, the Apertura and Clausura, consisting of less than 20 matches, and you can see how easy it is, relative to many other leagues, for a team to have a good run of form and end up being in the mix for the championship.

What does that mean for the coming Apertura? It means it’s bloody hard to pick a winner.  The Clausura’s surprise champions were Argentinos Juniors, but they were pushed all the way by Independiente, Estudiantes and Godoy Cruz.  Argentinos will find it very difficult to claim back to back titles, for many of the reasons already mentioned above.  For that reason, look to one of the trailing pack, or a well-organised Velez Sarsfield to emerge just in front of the other contenders after a helter skelter 19 rounds of football.  Argentinian football; it’s always unpredictable and often chaotic. And that, of course, is why we love it.

Predictions

Champion

We were leaning towards the consistently good Velez, but keeping within the anarchic spirit of things, we’ll predict a 9th winner in as many seasons: Independiente.

Top Scorer

Lucas Viatri – Expect Boca Juniors goal-getter Martin Palermo to finally begin to fade this year (he is 36 after all), and this talented youngster seems ready to step out of his shadow.  He only scored 4 goals in the last Clausura, but he should double or triple that this time around.  Although not the sharpest tool in the shed, Viatri is a natural, hulking striker.  He is also a convicted crim.  He is currently serving probation for armed robbery.  How colourful!

River and Boca

A special mention goes to Tweedledum and Tweedledee, who will once again be looking to ‘rebuild’.

In reality, Boca may have had a few bad seasons, but the structure of the club remains sound, and they should be back fighting for the title sometime soon.  Talk of Riquelme’s contract persists, but whether he signs or not, the team on the whole still appears a little stale.  They should finish in the top third of the table, but will not be the awesome force they once were until the whole Riquelme-Palermo generation toddle off into the sunset, and younger talents are allowed to step into the limelight.

River, after several years of real turmoil, go into this Apertura under a genuine threat of relegation. However, they finally seem to have constructed a decent team in the offseason, and they should avoid such a shameful fate quite comfortably.  Mid-table mediocrity may not seem like a fitting ambition for a club with such a rich history, but for now it should suffice.  They too, will be back, so the ‘smaller’ teams should enjoy their time in the sun while they can.

Note: The extended version of this preview, which includes ‘players to watch’ in the coming season, can be seen here: Apertura Preview

Author Info

Dan Colasimone

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